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How Sonar works

A big bettor — a whale — posts a large bid on Novig. When the market eats that bid fast, other money is betting against the whale. Sonar alerts the other side.

1Reading a Sonar card

Sonar hit· 11:54 PM
Tier A · 1%

Example Pitcher

TakeUNDER 6.5 Ks

mlb · Team @ TeamTue, Oct 6, 2:27 AM

48.5%
Novig now · hit 47.6%
▼ 0.9 pts worse
Nv +106bestFD -105Pin +102$720 on Novig at +106
Watching the money

Whale had OVER 6.5 Ks @ 54.5% · $2,600

66% eaten · hit 51m after the bid · $900 still takeable at the hit price

  1. 1Sonar hit + time — when the whale’s bid got eaten. A pulsing dot means it just happened.
  2. 2Tier — how strong the setup is and how much to bet (Tier A or B, as a % of your bankroll).
  3. 3TAKE UNDER 6.5 Ks — the bet — always the side opposite the whale.
  4. 4Big number — Novig’s price right now, with the price at the hit beside it and whether it’s moved better or worse.
  5. 5Price strip — the same side at other books; the best price is tagged.
  6. 6The whale box — what the whale had, how much of it got eaten, and how much is still takeable.
  7. 7Take on Novig — opens the exact market so you can place it.

2When and how much to bet

Bet while the card is in Open · Bet window — the game hasn’t started. The price can move after the hit, so the card shows Novig’s live price next to the hit price — it usually holds for about 5 minutes, so bet early. Size by the tier on the card: 1% of your bankroll for Tier A and Tier B. Set your bankroll in Whale Staking and the tracker suggests the dollar amount for you.

3The first 30 minutes: followed, quiet or reloaded

After the hit, Sonar watches the order book for 30 minutes. The first new money decides what happens next.

✅ Money followed — add another tier %, up to the limit on the card

Sonar hit· 11:39 PM
Tier A · 1%

Example Pitcher

TakeUNDER 6.5 Ks

mlb · Team @ TeamTue, Oct 6, 2:27 AM

49.0%
Novig now · hit 47.6%
▼ 1.4 pts worse
Nv +104bestFD -105Pin +102$720 on Novig at +104
✅ Money followed · 11:56 PM · add 1% up to 49.5%

Whale had OVER 6.5 Ks @ 54.5% · $2,600

66% eaten · hit 36m after the bid · $900 still takeable at the hit price

New money landed on our side. Add another 1% while Novig is at or better than the price in the tag — past that, the edge is mostly gone.

Quiet — no new money either way. Hold your bet; nothing to do.

🔄 Money reloaded — flip to the whale's side at 2×

Sonar hit· 11:33 PM
🔄 Flip 2×

Example Pitcher

TakeUNDER 6.5 Ks

mlb · Team @ TeamTue, Oct 6, 2:27 AM

Whale had OVER 6.5 Ks @ 54.5% · $2,600

66% eaten · hit 30m after the bid · $900 still takeable at the hit price

🔄 Money reloaded · 11:51 PM

TakeOVER 6.5 Ks

2× the play · 2% of bankroll · at 55.4% or better

55.0%
Novig at the reload

New money went back to the whale's side before any followed ours. The UNDER play is off — already in it? Cash it out.

New money went back to the whale before any followed ours. The Sonar play is off — cash it out if you're in — and take the whale's side at twice the play's size, as long as it's within 1 point of the whale's own price (the card shows the limit). Past that, or with nothing to take, it's cash out only — no flip. Reloaded plays have lost badly held and won flipped; the card shows Novig's price for the flip when the reload fired.

4Both sides hit — hold, don’t add

Sonar hit· 11:27 PM
⚖️ Both sides hit

Example Pitcher

TakeUNDER 6.5 Ks

mlb · Team @ TeamTue, Oct 6, 2:27 AM

48.5%
Novig now · hit 47.6%
▼ 0.9 pts worse
Nv +106bestFD -105Pin +102$720 on Novig at +106
Watching the money

Whale had OVER 6.5 Ks @ 54.5% · $2,600

66% eaten · hit 24m after the bid · $900 still takeable at the hit price

Both sides of this market got hit (11:51 PM)— no fresh consensus. Already in? Hold it, don't add — no need to cash out unless the money reloads. Not in yet? Pass on this one.

Sometimes the other side of the market gets eaten too. That’s two-way flow, not a fresh signal — so hold what you have and don’t add. Not in yet? Pass. There’s no need to cash out unless the money also reloads: held, the side Sonar posted has kept winning.

5Track your play

Sonar hit· 11:45 PM
Tier A · 1%

Example Pitcher

TakeUNDER 6.5 Ks

mlb · Team @ TeamTue, Oct 6, 2:27 AM

48.5%
Novig now · hit 47.6%
▼ 0.9 pts worse
Nv +106bestFD -105Pin +102$720 on Novig at +106

Whale had OVER 6.5 Ks @ 54.5% · $2,600

66% eaten · hit 42m after the bid · $900 still takeable at the hit price

Tap Track on a card and enter your price and wager — the card gets a YOU’RE IN band and moves to Your plays, below the plays you haven’t taken. Tap the band to add more after money follows, edit an entry, or record a cash-out (enter what you lost, won or got back). After the game the band shows your result:

Sonar hit· 4:57 PM
Tier A · 1%

Example Pitcher

TakeUNDER 6.5 Ks

mlb · Team @ TeamMon, Oct 5, 6:57 PM

WON
graded at 47.6% · actual 5

Whale had OVER 6.5 Ks @ 54.5% · $2,600

66% eaten · hit 42m after the bid

6The record, honestly

Every Sonar play180-132-12+18.7%n=324
✅ Money followed23-6-1+53.0%n=30
Quiet110-99-8+1.2%n=217
🔄 Money reloaded (flipped 2×)31-15-2+38.3%n=48
⚖️ Both sides hit (held)14-12-1+11.1%n=27

Graded the way the cards say to bet: $100 per play at the price when the hit fired, $100 more when money follows, and a reload voids the play and flips $200 to the whale's side when the price is within 1 point of the whale's — games since Sep 9. Reloads before Sep 24 are graded at the whale's own price (Novig's flip price wasn't recorded yet). These are small samples — a few hundred plays can swing several points either way — so treat the signals as guides, not guarantees. Your real price is usually a little worse than the hit price. Not betting advice.

Full Sonar record →

7Questions

Why bet against the whale?+

When a big bid gets eaten fast, the rest of the market is disagreeing with the whale — often with better information. Sonar follows that money.

The price moved — should I still bet?+

Compare Novig now with the hit price on the card. A point or two worse is normal; much worse and most of the edge is gone.

Can I see how each signal has done?+

Yes — the Signal filter on the Results page’s Sonar tab splits the record into money followed, quiet, reloaded and both sides hit. Followed plays include the add, reloaded plays are graded flipped, and both-sides plays as held.

What’s CLV?+

Closing-line value: whether the price you got beat the fair price just before the game. Over time it’s the best sign an edge is real.

Do I have to use Novig?+

The prices and links are Novig’s, but the Track sheet takes any book.

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